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DTSTAMP:20210916T132455Z
LOCATION:Louis Favre
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Stockholm:20210709T153000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Stockholm:20210709T160000
UID:submissions.pasc-conference.org_PASC21_sess134_msa281@linklings.com
SUMMARY:The Role of HPC in the Search of Next-Generation Earthquake Foreca
 sting Models
DESCRIPTION:Minisymposium\n\nThe Role of HPC in the Search of Next-Generat
 ion Earthquake Forecasting Models\n\nMizrahi, Nandan, Wiemer\n\nEarthquake
 s can be large and devastating, and despite decades of research on the top
 ic, they remain virtually unpredictable. However, precautionary measures t
 aken based on knowledge about seismic hazard can help minimizing the risk 
 and save lives. This highlights the importance of the development and test
 ing of better time-dependent forecasts which enable dynamic, risk-based de
 cision making. The Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model, a relat
 ively simple model which describes earthquake occurrence via a self-exciti
 ng spatio-temporal point process, is currently one of the best performing 
 earthquake forecasting models. While numerous alternatives, often highly m
 ore complex than ETAS, have been proposed, most of them are tested on sele
 cted earthquake sequences, which does not ensure their superiority during 
 other periods. Main reason for this lack of systematic testing is usually 
 the high computational power needed to calculate such forecasts. Here we d
 escribe an objective framework, empowered by HPC, to compare competing mod
 els by means of hundreds of pseudo-prospective forecasting experiments, ea
 ch requiring millions of simulations of possible scenarios.\n\nDomain: CS 
 and Math, Physics, Solid Earth Dynamics
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