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DTSTAMP:20210916T132451Z
LOCATION:Jean-Jacques Rousseau
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Stockholm:20210707T140000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Stockholm:20210707T143000
UID:submissions.pasc-conference.org_PASC21_sess146_msa228@linklings.com
SUMMARY:Modelling the Spatio Temporal Risk of Mosquito-Borne Diseases at C
 ontinental Scales
DESCRIPTION:Minisymposium\n\nModelling the Spatio Temporal Risk of Mosquit
 o-Borne Diseases at Continental Scales\n\nPoletti\n\nThe dynamics of mosqu
 ito abundance over time represents a crucial ingredient in assessing the r
 isk of vector-borne disease outbreaks globally. Even southern Europe can b
 e heavily affected by mosquito-borne disease, and investigating their temp
 oral patterns is an important tool in reducing the risk posed by outbreaks
 . Mechanistic mathematical models, which mimic the biological processes wh
 ich drive the full developmental cycle of mosquitoes, have been widely use
 d to estimate the dynamics of mosquito density across different geographic
 al areas. However, such approaches are very computationally intensive when
  applied at large scale or at high resolution. Consequently, detailed mech
 anistic models have been mainly used up until now to investigate local mos
 quito population and small-scale epidemic dynamics. Whilst other approache
 s, for instance those based around machine learning, have been tried, the 
 resulting estimates are not rich enough to provide information around the 
 seasonal variations characterizing the mosquito density, or on the expecte
 d overall abundance of mosquitoes within a given season. In this talk I wi
 ll describe our work which fuses these mathematical models with real-time 
 data and high performance computing. Our newly developed model aims to cov
 er continental scale with a spatial resolution of approximately 250m which
  is comparable to the scale of disease spread. The associated production o
 f a massive variety of scenarios, driven by model uncertainties on such a 
 large spatial scale raise a significant number of challenges. This include
 s the ability to run such a code on modern HPC machines, to data visualisa
 tion and analysis techniques.\n\nDomain: CS and Math, Emerging Application
 s
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